Research

Publication Highlights

Selected publications with brief summaries, organized by my key research areas. For a complete list of publications in these and other areas, scroll down or see my CV.

Economics of Science and Evidence-Based Policy:

The science-to-policy pipeline. How evidence shapes decisions. Why policy can fail to achieve its objectives. This work includes the journal review and publication process and how evidence is incorporated into policy decisions.

Cotton (2026), Rigor is Not Readiness: The PERL Framework for Evidence-Based Policy, Science

Develops standards for assessing evidence maturity to guide intervention and policy design, funding, and implementation. Lays out how “follow the science” means different things depending on the maturity of the evidence. [PERL summary; The Conversation; Global News live radio interview].

Cotton, Alam, Tosta, Buchman, & Maslove (2025), Effect of monetary incentives on peer review acceptance and completion: A quasi-randomized interventional trial, Critical Care Medicine

The first controlled trial of financial incentives for peer reviewers at a medical journal. Payments modestly improved turnaround times without reducing review quality. The issue’s feature article, journal forward & editorial; and covered in Queen’s Gazette, Nature, Nature again, Nature yet again, Inside Higher Ed, MindMatters, and several discussion pieces at CCM.

Cotton (2013), Submission fees and response times in academic publishing, American Economic Review

Journals may use both submission fees and slow response times to prevent long-shot submissions and maintain reasonable review loads.

Additional work on these topics appears in the full publication list below.

Human Capital, Learning, and Expertise:

How people develop skills and expertise, and how policies and technologies shape that process. This work combines field experiments, structural modeling, and evaluations across schools in Chicago and development programs in sub-Saharan Africa, examining what actually drives student effort and achievement, and what AI adoption may mean for the formation of expertise.

Cotton, Hickman, List, Price, & Roy (2026), Why Don’t Struggling Kids Do Their Homework? Disentangling Motivation and Study Productivity in a Model of Human Capital Investment, Journal of Political Economy

Performance gaps among struggling students reflect weak support and lack of opportunity more than lack of motivation. Efforts to help them must ensure effort pays off — not just incentivize more of it. [NBER wp27995 & wp37274]

Nordstrom & Cotton (2025), The Impact of a Severe Drought on Girls’ Attendance and Learning, American Educational Research Journal

A severe drought increased school enrollment while reducing learning, highlighting a disconnect that undermines the widespread use of enrollment as a proxy for educational progress. Combines NASA satellite imagery with program data from Zimbabwe. [Lead article]

Cotton, Hickman, & Price (2022), Affirmative action and human capital investment: Evidence from a randomized field experiment, Journal of Labor Economics

Affirmative action policies shift the distribution of effort and performance, increasing average outcomes while reducing the effort of the most capable minority students. The first controlled field experiment of a large-scale contest. [NBER wp20397; featured in Quartz, FiveThirtyEight, The Chronicle of Higher Education]

Boleslavsky & Cotton (2015), Grading standards and education quality, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

The most selective schools inflate grades while relying on their reputations to place students. Other schools must grade more accurately to keep their strongest students competitive in the job market. The first model of competitive Bayesian persuasion. [AEA Research Highlight, Vox-EU]

Substantial additional work on human capital development, educational interventions, and gender differences in competition appears in the Journal of Human Capital, American Educational Research Journal, the World Bank Economic Review, the Journal of Development Effectiveness, the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, and other outlets.

Collective Action and Public Goods:

How groups work together under preference misalignment and heterogeneity. This work develops the multiple-threshold public goods framework and uses it to study coordination failures, the emergence of wealthy-interest bias, and the concentration of power in repeated group decision-making.

Corazzini, Cotton, Longo, & Reggiani (2024), Coordinated selection of collective action: Wealthy-interest bias and inequality, Journal of Public Economics

Wealthy-interest policy biases can emerge from the basic structure of collective action — without lobbying, corruption, or any of the mechanisms typically assumed to drive them. An application of our multiple threshold public goods framework (Corazzini et al. 2015) to study cooperation among groups with only partially aligned preferences.

Agranov, Cotton, & Tergiman (2020), Persistence of Power: Repeated multilateral bargaining with endogenous agenda setting authority, Journal of Public Economics

In repeated group bargaining, power concentrates over time even when members have equal formal standing — and the standard theoretical equilibrium concept fails to predict how groups actually behave. [Lead article]

Corazzini, Cotton, & Valbonesi (2015), Donor coordination in project funding: Evidence from a threshold public goods experiment, Journal of Public Economics

The first multiple-threshold public goods experiment — providing a framework for studying how groups consolidate their collective attention around different actions, policies, and initiatives. Foundational work for understanding cooperation between organizations, communities, and coalitions.

Additional work on these topics appears in Experimental Economics and other outlets.

Information, Persuasion, and Influence:

How strategic communication shapes competition and policy. This work includes early models of competitive Bayesian persuasion and informational lobbying, with applications to electoral competition, product markets, campaign finance, and lobbying.

Boleslavsky, Cotton, & Gurnani (2017), Demonstrations and price competition in new product release, Management Science

Trial periods, return policies, and niche marketing strategies allow firms to credibly communicate product quality to skeptical buyers. A Bayesian persuasion model showing why these practices are profitable.

Boleslavsky & Cotton (2015), Information and extremism in elections, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

Uncertainty about how voters’ opinions of candidates will evolve over the course of a campaign undermines the median voter theorem and party incentives to run more moderate candidates. [The Washington Post, IB Times, Discovery News].

Cotton (2012), Pay-to-play politics: Informational lobbying and contribution limits when money buys access, Journal of Public Economics

When political contributions buy access to politicians, those with access (targeted by politician rent-seeking) do not necessarily benefit from politician attention. Campaign finance reform can improve welfare. One of the first models of informational lobbying and access.

Cotton (2009), Should we tax or cap political contributions? A lobbying model with policy favors and access, Journal of Public Economics

Taxing political contributions may be more effective than donation limits when politicians allocate their attention based on political contributions. One of the first models of informational lobbying and political access. [Lead article]

Substantial additional work on lobbying, information acquisition, and strategic behavior appears in the Journal of Law, Economics & Organization, Economic Theory, and other outlets.

All Journal Articles

Cotton (2026), Rigor is Not Readiness: The PERL Framework for Evidence-Based Policy, Science [PERL summary; The Conversation; Global News live radio interview]

Cotton & Scholle Cotton (2026), The AI Expertise Paradox, Issues in Science and Technology, National Academy of Sciences

Cotton & Hickman (2026), Affirmative action, shifting competition, and human capital accumulation: A comparative static analysis of investment contests, Journal of Human Capital, Accepted

Nordstrom, Robb, & Cotton (2026), Using Full Matching to Measure the Marginal Benefit of Bicycles in a Multifaceted Development Program, Journal of Development Effectiveness

Cotton, Alam, Tosta, Buchman, & Maslove (2025), Effect of monetary incentives on peer review acceptance and completion: A quasi-randomized interventional trial, Critical Care Medicine [issue’s feature article and was accompanied by a journal forward & editorial. Queen’s Gazette, Nature, Nature again]

Cotton, Alam, Tosta, Buchman, & Maslove (2025). Author’s reply to ‘…A Welcome Step Forward.’ Critical Care Medicine

Cotton, Alam, Tosta, Buchman, & Maslove (2025). Author’s reply to ‘…Should They Be Differentiated…’ and ‘Introducing the ρ-Index…’ Critical Care Medicine

Nordstrom & Cotton (2025), The Impact of a Severe Drought on Girls’ Attendance and Learning, American Educational Research Journal

Cotton, Nordstrom, Nanowski, & Richter (2025), Can Discussions About Girls’ Education Improve Academic Outcomes: Evidence from a Randomized Development Intervention, World Bank Economic Review [featured on VoxDev]

Cotton, LaBarge, & Nordstrom (2025), Canadian Public Health Experiences with COVID-19 and a New Framework for Assessing Evidence, Frontiers in Public Health

Corazzini, Cotton, Longo, & Reggiani (2024), Coordinated selection of collective action: Wealthy-interest bias and inequality, Journal of Public Economics

Li & Cotton (2023), Profiling restrictions in a model of law enforcement and strategic crime, European Journal of Law & Economics

Cotton, Hickman, & Price (2022), Affirmative action and human capital investment: Evidence from a randomized field experiment, Journal of Labor Economics [NBER wp20397; featured at Quartz, FiveThirtyEight, The Chronicle of Higher Education]

Cotton, Crowley, Kashi, Lloyd-Ellis, & Tremblay (2022), Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID-19 policy responses in (almost) real-time, Canadian Journal of Economics

Kurzawa, Cotton, Mazurkewich, Verney, Busch-Hallen, & Kashi (2021), Training healthcare workers increases IFA use and adherence: Evidence and cost-effectiveness analysis from Bangladesh, Maternal & Child Nutrition

Agranov, Cotton, & Tergiman (2020), Persistence of Power: Repeated multilateral bargaining with endogenous agenda setting authority, Journal of Public Economics [lead article]

Corazzini, Cotton, & Reggiani (2020), Delegation and coordination with multiple threshold public goods: experimental evidence, Experimental Economics

Cotton, McIntyre, Nordstrom, & Price (2019), Correcting for bias in hot-hand analysis: An application to youth golf, Journal of Economic Psychology

Boleslavsky & Cotton (2018), Limited capacity in project selection: Competition through evidence production, Economic Theory

Cotton & Li (2018), Clueless Politicians: On Policymaker Incentives for Information Acquisition in a Model of Lobbying, Journal of Law, Economics & Organization

Boleslavsky, Cotton, & Gurnani (2017), Demonstrations and price competition in new product release, Management Science

Cotton (2016), Competing for attention: Lobbying time-constrained politicians, Journal of Public Economic Theory

Cotton & Dellis (2016), Informational lobbying and agenda distortion, Journal of Law, Economics & Organization

Corazzini, Cotton, & Valbonesi (2015), Donor coordination in project funding: Evidence from a threshold public goods experiment, Journal of Public Economics

Boleslavsky & Cotton (2015), Grading standards and education quality, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics [featured in an AEA Research Highlight and on Vox-EU]

Boleslavsky & Cotton (2015), Information and extremism in elections, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. [featured in The Washington Post, IB Times, and Discovery News]

Cotton, Li, McIntyre, & Price (2015), Which explanations for gender differences in competition are consistent with a simple theoretical model?, Journal of Behavioral & Experimental Economics

Campos, Cotton, & Li (2015), Deterrence effects under Twombly: On the costs of increasing pleading standards in litigation, International Review of Law and Economics

Cotton & Li (2015), Profiling, screening and criminal recruitment, Journal of Public Economic Theory

Cotton (2013), Submission fees and response times in academic publishing, American Economic Review

Cotton, McIntyre, & Price (2013), Gender differences in repeated competition: Evidence from school math contests, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization [NBER wp16436; featured in Forbes, Vox-EU]

Cotton (2012), Pay to play politics: Informational lobbying and contribution limits when money buys access, Journal of Public Economics

Cotton & Liu (2011), 100 horsemen and the empty city: A game theoretic exploration of deception in Chinese military legend, Journal of Peace Research [featured in U.S. News & World Report]

Cotton (2009), Multiple bidding in auctions as bidders become confident of their private valuations, Economics Letters

Cotton (2009), Should we tax or cap political contributions? A lobbying model with policy favors and access, Journal of Public Economics [lead article]

Edited Books

Cotton, ed. (2025), Lasting Disruption: Health, Economic, and Social Impacts of COVID-19 in Canada, State of the Federation Book Series, McGill-Queen’s University Press.

A comprehensive assessment of the pandemic’s lasting impacts on Canada’s economy, education, public health, and social fabric. Resulting from my leadership of the NSERC/PHAC-funded One Society Network, bringing together economists, epidemiologists, and policy experts from across Canada.

Chapters & Other Scholarship

Cotton (2025), The Broad Impacts of COVID-19 in Canada, Ch 1 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP.

Cotton (2025), Assessing the Impacts of COVID-19 on Canadian Economy and Businesses, Ch 2 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP.

Afodjo, Cotton, Jones, & Scholle-Cotton (2025), The Economics of COVID-19 and Educational Attainment in Canada, Ch 6 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP [Featured at The Hub]

Mutic & Cotton, COVID-19’s Other Impacts: Technology, Homelessness, Mental Health, and Addiction, Ch 13 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP

Adamowicz, Boadway, Breznitz, Cotton, Elgie, Forget, Gold, Jones, Lange, de Marcellis-Warin, McCabe, Peacock, & Tedds [the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 working group on economic recovery] (2025), Renewing the Social Contract and Fostering Innovation to Build a Stronger Post-Covid Economy, Ch 14 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP

Lewis, Brown, Colijn, Cotton, Cowen, Day, Deardon, Earn, Haskell, Heffernan, Leighton, Murty, Otto, Rafferty, Hughes Tuohy, Wu, & Zhu [Canada’s NSERC Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network leadership] (2025), Charting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada: A Call to Maintain Capacity, Ch 15 in Lasting Disruption, MQUP [through VK Murty, I have an Erdos number of 2]

Teeter & Cotton (2025), Reforms that stick: A roadmap for strengthening Canada’s internal market, in Barriers and Bridges: Rethinking Trade in the Federation, Centre of Excellence of the Canadian Federation, Institute for Research on Public Policy

Cotton, Alam, Tosta, Buchman, Maslove (2025). Monetary incentives for peer review at a medical journal: A quasi-randomized experimental study. 10th International Conference on Peer Review and Scientific Publishing [one-page reviewed conference proceedings].

Cotton & Teeter (2025), Breaking Down Canada’s Internal Trade Barriers, JDI Policy Insight, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy [op-ed at The Hill Times]

McCabe, … Cotton et al. (2020), Renewing the social contract: Economic recovery in Canada from COVID-19, Royal Society of Canada Policy Briefing, RSC COVID-19 Task Force

Cotton et al. (2020), Cost-benefit analysis: Improving the quality of primary school education in Malawi, in The Malawi Priorities Project, African Institute for Development Policy

Cotton et al. (2020), Cost-Benefit Analysis of Interventions to Boost Girls’ Secondary Education and Reduce Early Child Marriage in Malawi, in The Malawi Priorities Project, African Institute for Development Policy

Not-Yet-Published Papers

When Motivation is Not Enough: Opportunity to Learn and the Roots of Student Disengagement

Evidence Under Pressure: Governance, Public Pressure, and COVID-19 School Closures with Monica LaBarge & Ardyn Nordstrom.

The Future of AI and Critical Care: An Exploration in Thirteen Parables with David Maslove, Arthur Kwizera, Pravin Mousavi, Dominique Piquette, Alper Uzun, & Leo Celi.

Should Star Performers Lead or Anchor Their Teams? Sequential Contributions in a Threshold Public Goods Experiment, with Luca Corazzini & Enrico Longo [profile in Smith Business Insights].

The Economics of VSLA Savings Groups and The Value of Financial Inclusion with Frederic Tremblay

Wildfire Smoke and the Increase in Urban Work, with Zemar Hakim

A Market Design Approach to Reducing Achievement Gaps in Light of Academic Productivity, Motivation, and School Quality Differences, with Brent Hickman, John List, & Greg Sun

Is Math Tutoring a Treatment for Lack of Understanding or Lack of Engagement? A Field Experiment, with Brent Hickman, & John List

A Model of Challenge Funds: How Funding Availability and Selection Rigor Affect Project Quality with Raphael Boleslavsky

Disincentive effects of evaluation with Raphael Boleslavsky

Competing for Capital: Auditing and Credibility in Financial Reporting, with Raphael Boleslavsky & Bruce Carlin, NBER working paper 23273

Less Proficient or More Methodical: A Field Experimental Investigation of Measured Gender Gaps in Math Scores, with Brent Hickman & John List

Motivated reasoning in the assessment of evidence during crises: Insights from public health leaders during COVID-19, with Monica LaBarge & Ardyn Nordstrom

What makes for successful collaborations? Experimental evidence with Luca Corazzini, Andreas Lange, & Enrico Longo

Collaborators

Current & Former Students: Abid Alam (Queen’s), Zemar Hakim (Queen’s), Maggie Jones (McGill), Cheng Li (Zhongnan), Ardyn Nordstrom (Carleton), Zac Robb (Queen’s), Eric Richert (U Chicago), Frederic Tremblay (Queen’s). Economics: Vic Adamowicz (Alberta), Marina Agranov (CalTech), Robin Boadway (Queen’s), Ralph Boleslavsky (Indiana), Bruce Carlin (Rice), Luca Corazzini (Milan), Arnaud Dellis (UQAM), Brent Hickman (Utah), Bahman Kashi (Queen’s), Andreas Lange (Hamburg), Fabian Lange (McGill), Huw Lloyd-Ellis (Queen’s), Enrico Longo (Hamburg), John List (U Chicago), Chris McCabe (Queen’s Belfast), Frank McIntyre (Amazon), Joe Price (BYU), Ellen Rafferty (Alberta), Suta Roy (ANU), Tommaso Reggiani (Cardiff), Greg Sun (WashU), Lindsay Tedds (Calgary), Chloe Tergiman (Penn State), Paola Valbonesi (Padua). Other Fields (selected): Tim Buchman (Emory, medicine), Sergio Campos (Boston College, law), Leo Celi (MIT, computational physiology), Caroline Colijn (SFU, epidemiology), Troy Day (Queen’s, mathematical biology), Haresh Gurnani (Stony Brook, management), Monica LaBarge (Queen’s, marketing), Mark Lewis (UVic, mathematical biology), David Maslove (Queen’s, medicine), Elspeth Murray (Queen’s, strategy), V Kumar Murty* (Toronto, Fields Institute, math), Lydia Scholle-Cotton (Queen’s, education), Carolyn Hughes Tuohy (Toronto, Munk). Notes: * through Kumar, I have an Erdős Number of 2

Chris Cotton