Lasting Disruption: Economic and Social Impacts of COVID-19 on Canada

Edited by Christopher Cotton

Part of the State of the Federation book series published by the Institute for Intergovernmental Relations and McGill-Queen’s University Press

Summary

Assessing COVID-19’s enduring imprint on Canadian society and drawing lessons for future resilience.

The immediate and devastating health effects of COVID-19 have eased in recent years, but the pandemic’s enduring influence continues to redefine nearly every facet of life in Canada. This first comprehensive analysis of the virus’s impact examines its effects across Canadian society and draws a blueprint for how multidisciplinary research networks can enable stronger responses to crises in the future.

Lasting Disruption brings together leading experts to explore how COVID-19 reshaped the economy, healthcare, education, and public transportation. The collection addresses core issues such as economic disruptions, labour shortages, public healthcare impacts, and the pandemic’s disproportionate effects on Indigenous communities. Particularly revealing is the analysis of economic data: Canada suffered losses of approximately $242 billion over the first two years, with small businesses hit hard as corporations grew more profitable. The volume also examines post-pandemic struggles in educational attainment, fiscal impacts on public transit, and the Canadian Armed Forces’ role in pandemic response. It evaluates environmental outcomes, considers the complexities of policy coordination within a decentralized federation, and reviews changes, including constitutional ones, that would build a more resilient economy.

Offering an original perspective on the breadth of COVID-19’s repercussions and practical recommendations for evidence-based policy in health, education, labour, governance, and equity, Lasting Disruption is essential reading for researchers, policymakers, think tanks, advocacy groups, and those interested in crisis preparedness and resilience planning.

The Broad Impacts of COVID-19 | 3-22
Christopher Cotton
–
Assessing the Impacts of COVID-19 on Canada’s Economy and Businesses | 23-47
Christopher Cotton
–
Where Did All the Workers Go? Labour Market Shortages in the Wake of COVID-19 | 48-62
Huw Lloyd-Ellis
–
Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Outcomes within Canada’s Public Healthcare System: A Scoping Review | 63-90
Dana Wolitski and Ellen Rafferty
–
Outlook on the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Indigenous Communities and People in Canada | 91-148
Areez Gangji, Maggie E.C. Jones, and Laurel Wheeler
–
Education and COVID-19: The Canadian Student Experience | 149-193
Nabil Afodjo, Christopher Cotton, Maggie Jones, and Lydia Scholle-Cotton
–
Projecting the Impact of Alternative Policies in Rapidly Changing, Complex Environments: Methods, Assumptions, and Lessons Learned during the COVID-19 Pandemic | 194-216
Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Baiyou Chen, and Frederic Tremblay
–
The Effects of COVID-19 on Public Transit in the City of Calgary: Fiscal Impacts and Equity Considerations | 217-232
Gillian Petit, Lindsay M. Tedds, and Wenshuang Yu
–
COVID-19 and the Canadian Labour Market: Short- and Long-Term Impacts across Demographics and Industries | 233-246
Lakshmi Anandaraj
–
Enhancing Pandemic Control in a Decentralized Federation | 247-255
Francois Arès, François Castonguay, Carolyn Fischer, Markus Herrmann, and James N. Sanchirico
–
COVID-19 and the Environment in Canada: A Narrative Synthesis of Environmental, Behavioural, and Economics Literature | 256-284
Jerico Fiestas-Flores, W.L. (Vic) Adamowicz, and Patrick Lloyd-Smith
–
Canadian Armed Forces and Domestic Pandemic Response | 285-306
Peter Kasurak and Christian Leuprecht
–
On COVID-19’s Other Impacts: Technology, Homelessness, Mental Health and Addiction, and Crime | 307-333
Brock Mutic and Christopher Cotton
–
Renewing the Social Contract and Fostering Innovation to Build a Stronger Post-COVID-19 Economy | 334-368 [previous version here]
Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Task-Force Working Group on Economic Recovery: W.L. (Vic) Adamowicz, Robin Boadway, Dan Breznitz, Christopher Cotton, Stewart Elgie, Evelyn Forget, Richard Gold, Esyllt Jones, Fabian Lange, Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, Christopher McCabe, Stuart Peacock, and Lindsay M. Tedds
–
Charting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada: A Call to Maintain Capacity | 368-399 [previous version here]
NSERC Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling Networks leadership collaboration: Mark A. Lewis, Patrick Brown, Caroline Colijn, Christopher Cotton, Laura Cowen, Troy Day, Rob Deardon, David J.D. Earn, Deirdre Haskell, Jane Heffernan, Patrick Leighton, Kumar Murty, Sarah Otto, Ellen Rafferty, Carolyn Hughes Tuohy, Jianhong Wu, and Huaiping Zhu
–

Contributors

W.L. (Vic) Adamowicz is distinguished university professor emeritus, University of Alberta; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery; co-director (2022–24) and environmental modelling lead for the OneSociety Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Nabil Afodjo is an economist at NAV Canada; NSERC One Society Network postdoctoral fellow at Queen’s University.
–
Lakshmi Anandaraj is a JD candidate at the University of Toronto.
–
François Arès is a PhD student in economics, Université Laval.
–
Robin Boadway is David Chadwick Smith Emeritus Professor of Economics at Queen’s University; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Dan Breznitz is a university professor, Munk Chair of Innovation Studies, and co-director of the Innovation-Policy Lab, University of Toronto; co-director and fellow of the Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) program on Innovation, Equity & the Future of Prosperity.
–
Patrick Brown is associate professor in statistics, University of Toronto; cross-appointed with the Centre for Global Health Research, St Michael’s Hospital; member of the SMMEID Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network.
–
François Castonguay is assistant professor, Department of Health Management, Evaluation, and Policy, University of Montreal School of Public Health.
–
Baiyou Chen is a PhD candidate in economics at Queen’s University; former research assistant for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Caroline Colijn is professor of mathematics, Simon Fraser University; Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Evolution, Infection, and Public Health; member of the One Society Network, and director of the CANMOD Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network.
–
Christopher Cotton is the book editor for Lasting Disruption. He is a professor in the Department of Economics and the holder of the Jarislowsky-Deutsch Chair in Economic and Financial Policy at Queen’s University. He serves as the director of the John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy (JDI), holds cross appointments in the School of Policy Studies and the School of Medicine, and teaches in the Smith School of Business at Queen’s. He was a member of the Royal Society of Canada’s COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery and Global Canada’s COVID Strategic Choices Group, and he served as director of research for Limestone Analytics’ pandemic modelling for governments. From 2020–24, he served as co-director of NSERC’s One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Laura Cowen is associate professor of mathematics and statistics, University of Victoria; member of the SMMEID Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling Network.
–
Troy Day is professor of mathematics and statistics and professor of biology, Queen’s University; member of the Consensus Table arm of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table; member of CANMOD and the One Society Networks for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Rob Deardon is a professor at the University of Calgary with expertise in biostatistics and infectious disease modelling.
–
David J.D. Earn is professor of mathematics, McMaster University; chair of the Ontario Modelling Consensus Table and member of the Ontario Science Advisory Table; fellow, Canadian Academy of Health Sciences; member of the CANMOD Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network.
–
Stewart Elgie is professor of law and economics, University of Ottawa; founder and chair, Smart Prosperity Institute; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Carolyn Fisher is research manager of the sustainability and infrastructure team in the Development Research Group of the World Bank; former Canada 150 Research Chair in Climate Economics, Innovation, and Policy at the University of Ottawa.
–
Jerico Fiestas-Flores is a PhD candidate in agricultural and resources economics, University of Alberta; research assistant for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Evelyn Forget is distinguished professor, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Areez Gangji is an economist at Big River Analytics; former MA student at Queen’s University and research assistant for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Richard Gold is the James McGill Professor, McGill Faculty of Law, and McGill Faculty of Medicine; director, Centre for Intellectual Property Policy; senior fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation.
–
Deirdre Haskell is professor of mathematics, McMaster University; deputy director and interim director, Fields Institute.
–
Jane Heffernan is professor of mathematics and statistics, York University; co-director, Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling; member of the One Health, CANMOD, and MFPH Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling networks.
–
Markus Herrmann is associate professor of economics, Université Laval.
–
Esyllt Jones is professor, history and community health sciences, and dean of studies of St. John’s College, University of Manitoba; member of the Royal Society of Canada Task Force on COVID-19 and Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Maggie Jones is associate professor of economics at McGill University; faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research; led the education and marginalized populations working groups for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Peter Kasurak is fellow, Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen’s University.
–
Fabian Lang is professor of economics, McGill University; research associate, National Bureau of Economic Research; research fellow of IZA; member of CIRANO; research affiliate, University of Oslo; Canada Research Chair in Labour and Personnel Economics; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Patrick Leighton is professor of epidemiology and public health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal; member of the MFPH and One Health Modelling Networks for Emerging Infections.
–
Mark A. Lewis is professor and Kennedy Chair in Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria; emeritus professor, University of Alberta; member of the One Health Modelling and CANMOD Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling networks.
–
Christian Leuprecht is the State of the Federation book series editor. Class of 1965 professor of leadership at the Royal Military College of Canada and serves as a cross-appointed professor in the School of Policy Studies and Political Studies and as the director of the Institute for Intergovernmental Relations at Queen’s University.
–
Huw Lloyd-Ellis is professor of economics at Queen’s University; president of the Canadian Economic Association; senior advisor for Limestone Analytics; led the macroeconomic and workforce modelling working group for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Patrick Lloyd-Smith is associate professor, agricultural and resource economics, University of Saskatchewan.
–
Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin is a professor, Department of Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique Montreal; president and CEO of CIRANO; visiting scholar, Harvard T. Chan School of Public Health; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Christopher McCabe is a professor at Queen’s University Belfast; former CEO of the Institute of Health Economics, co-director of the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling (2020–22), member of the Global Canada COVID Strategic Choices Group, and chair of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
V. Kumar Murty is professor of mathematics, University of Toronto; former director, Fields Institute; member of the OMNI networks and director of MFPH Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network.
–
Brock Mutic is a former MA student, Department of Economics and research assistant, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University.
–
Sarah Otto is professor of zoology, University of British Columbia; member of canmod network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Stewart Peacock is professor and Leslie Diamond Chair in Cancer Survivorship, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University; fellow, Canadian Academy of Health Sciences; co-director, Canadian Centre for Applied Research in Cancer Control; member of the Royal Society of Canada COVID-19 Working Group on Economic Recovery.
–
Gillian Petit is senior research associate, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
–
Ellen Rafferty is assistant professor in the Department of Medicine, University of Alberta; senior principal health economist at the Institute of Health Economics; project manager for the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
James N. Sanchirico is professor of environmental science and policy, University of California at Davis.
–
Lydia Scholle-Cotton is a PhD student, Faculty of Education, Queen’s University.
–
Lindsay M. Tedds is associate professor of economics, University of Calgary. Former member of the Deputy Prime Minister’s Task Force for Women and the Economy, the Royal Society of Canada’s working groups on Economic Recovery, and the Impact of COVID-19 on Women in Canada.
–
Frederic Tremblay is an economist at Limestone Analytics; NSERC One Society Network postdoctoral fellow at Queen’s University.
–
Carolyn Hughes Tuohy is professor emeritus and distinguished fellow, Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto.
–
Laurel Wheeler is assistant professor of economics at the University of Alberta; research fellow at the Center for Indian Country Development at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
–
Danica Wolitski is health economist at the Institute for Health Economics; PhD student at the School of Public Health, University of Alberta; NSERC research associate with the One Society Network for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling.
–
Jianhong Wu is university distinguished research professor, York University; Canada Research Chair in Industrial and Applied Mathematics; fellow of the Canadian Academy of Health Sciences; director of the York Emergency Mitigation, Engagement, Response, and Governance Institute; fellow, Fields Institute and founding director, Fields Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health; member of the MFPH Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling network.
–
Wenshuang Yu is instructor, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
–
Huaiping Zhu is professor of mathematics and statistics, York University; director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling; director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections.

Chris Cotton